My experience has been more balanced so far (Emerald league, nearly all my birds are 4’s). If I lose, I lose because I made 2 mistakes (i.e. foul bird :)). 1 mistake, unless I’m playing those multi-carders at end of game, I can usually win.
I have won many a game with the watch-ad-free-bird at the end, but I end up being VERY close to my opponent. Not more than 100-200k points. Also, it pays to have a new level to use the free bird, i.e. clean out your last level otherwise you waste the extra bird on a micro-pig and nothing else.